Are we in for . drought?

Discussion in 'Chin Wag' started by Flatland, Jun 17, 2017.

  1. Flatland

    Flatland Well-Known Member Premium Member GOLD

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    Down south we had a good early start to autumn but winter we've almost no rain. I've had to start watering my veggies. Also some places have got mouse plagues.
    The weather seems to be becoming weird last summer we had so much rain & now we are worrying we are headed for a drought
     
  2. ClissAT

    ClissAT Valued Member Premium Member GOLD

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    Yes Flatland, it does seem that we are heading into drought again, even though right now many places are getting too much unseasonal rain.
    The long range weather forecasters have all agreed to drought conditions in the second half of the year for most of east coast of Australia.
    I understand you are not on the east coast, but where you are would be subject to similar conditions at drop of a hat if they affected adjoining areas.

    This unseasonal rain is lulling people into a false sense of security.
     
  3. Flatland

    Flatland Well-Known Member Premium Member GOLD

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    We had 10 mm the last two days of June. Yeh! Better than nothing. Adelaide apparently has recorded the lowest June rainfall for over 50 years. here in Milang our June rainfall was low but actually not as low as two years ago. Unseasonal or not I'm hoping for summer rain. SA is a winter rain summer dry climate so last years high summer rainfall was very unseasonably but it certainly cut the number of bushfires down & did great things for my pastures.
     
  4. Ash

    Ash Valued Member Premium Member GOLD

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    Here's hoping for more rain for you. Still a whole to go for spring so we'll see how it pans out. In south Queensland we get summer rains and winter winds.
     
  5. ClissAT

    ClissAT Valued Member Premium Member GOLD

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    Same, same here Flatland.
    According to my stats which I religiously keep, this year so far is even worse for rainfall than the 2014 drought year which is saying something.
    But this year is different in that we are having another green drought.
    The grass is bright green due to heavy fogs most nights.
    It's not until you see the rainfall for the year that you realize just how short we are.
    Very unseasonal rain. Luckily so far no wind.
    I was just saying to someone yesterday, that it is many years since we had full-on westerlies.
    In my extensive record keeping, I can see there is generally a 28-34yr weather cycle so perhaps it could be another year or more before we have those harsh westerlies again here. They are due to the winter highs that settle across the middle of Australia every winter, then eventually get pushed off the land into the Tasman by the next arctic front. That is the same front that brings you your winter rain & 4 seasons in one day, Flatland. Once that front gets to SE Qld it is just icy roaring westerlies coming straight off the Great Australian Bight or from across the snow fields.
    That time frame cycle coincides with the solar cycle & I know we are still in the same phase as the last many years of low sun spot activity.
     
  6. Flatland

    Flatland Well-Known Member Premium Member GOLD

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    We kept records where we were in the Adelaide Hills for over 40 years & there the rainfall was just slowly decreasing. Had ups & downs but over the 40 years we dropped from well over 800 mm to about 600 mm a year. Here at Milang our personal records are only 3 years so don't tell us much. but the local community paper always prints the month's rainfall & compares it to past years. Milang usually averages between 300 & 350. so we are about average at the moment. Still hoping for summer rain. It does appear to a lot of people that over the years SA is becoming more tropical in its rainfall distribution in that the winters are becoming drier & the summers wetter. On a purely personal point of view that suits me because it lessens the bushfire danger & the Adelaide Hills is a serious bushfire area & down here OH has joined the CFS so I am happy to see less fires
     
  7. Mataeka

    Mataeka Active Member Premium Member GOLD

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    I feel the Ekka winds are not far away though!

    I had never paid much attention to the weather previously (what can I say, I was young) But a few years back my sister pointed out the existence of the Ekka winds - sure enough every August when the Ekka comes to Brisbane so too come the winds.

    I'm curious as to the benefit of keeping such detailed stats ClissAT - can you enlighten me please? Or is it more of a habitual/hobby type thing?
     
  8. ClissAT

    ClissAT Valued Member Premium Member GOLD

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    Yes they sure know when to arrive!


    The weather is cyclic as is everything in our universe. Nothing is to chance. One thing affects the next, etc.
    When we see the local weather on the TV news or even on the www for example, we are only seeing a generalization or averaging of what weather there might be in a whole region.
    I keep records because most areas are quite specific & more than likely not exactly like what the weather man says. For example where I live now is in a quite strong rain shadow. My weather is very different to my nearest town of Pomona which is in a wetter area.
    My record keeping has led me to other knowledge along with my own take on how the cycles perform. The sunspot cycle which controls Earth's weather is aprox 28-35yrs long. It has 4 distinct sectors, each in turn broken down in to another 4 parts. Then there are much longer sunspot cycles which cover many 100's of years.

    A complete cycle of weather is like a pendulum swinging from left to right & back to the beginning. Severest drought on the far left, wettest on the far right, mixes of both periodically in between. On the upswing to the left we get seasons getting drier & drier with long periods of no rain, on the downswing from the left we still get dry years but with big wet events splattered through. Then in the middle the benign years of sweet weather. Towards the right on the upswing are the big bad wet events until the earth or at least our part of the earth is awash. Then gradually on the down swing from the right, the seasons ease up with some dry years splattered through.
    Not all the Earth shares the same type of weather at the same time. While we are in our wet years, other parts are in their drought years. That's due in part to how the moisture moves around the planet.
    There are other things which affect Earth's weather too, pertaining to our orbit around the sun, but that's on a far longer scale of 1000's of years but which regulate our greenhouse or ice age events.

    One thing to note is that as the population rises, more & more moisture & minerals are permanently locked up in or controlled by the humans, their infrastructure & their animals. The more people, domestic animals & infrastructure there is, the more the natural environment is robbed of the required volume to keep the natural balance flowing correctly. Afterall, it is a closed system. We can't just order in more!
    I'm not suggesting there is only one way to have a balance, since the Earth is in perpetual change. But if our species is to survive more than a microscopic length of time on this planet, we need to restrict our greedy hogging of all the resources.

    One of those is water. If enough moisture in it's various forms is not being moved through the atmosphere around the planet, it changes the balance. One thing that happens is we start getting rain changes. We already know that localized land clearing quickly & irrevocably changes rain patterns in nearby areas. As does clearing the Amazon change continental & adjacent oceanic rain patterns. Changing Atlantic rain patterns changes humidity & therefore wind patterns, which changes cloud patterns, which changes temperature patterns over water & land, etc, etc.

    Separate to that are the patterns that are not affected by human activity. These include the great oceanic currents which are making their own changes & of course the magnetic poles which change from time to time.

    All these have larger affects on our weather & slightly modify every cycle. Understanding what changes might be in store, gives added insight to how good or bad the coming seasons might be. When I was looking for what I hoped would be my final property purchase (this property where I now live) I took the weather cycle into account. I didn't want to be going through major drought or wet with all that associated hard work & effort in my older years.

    I also have a hypothesis regarding the natural world being a mathematically based system for which I have some roughly worked proof. But that is for another post. ;)
     
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  9. Mataeka

    Mataeka Active Member Premium Member GOLD

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    Wow! Thank you for such an awesome explanation! I grew up in Peachester in a time when the news weatherman didn't even forecast for the sunshine coast (so the forecast was always wrong!) so it makes total sense - I've just never thought of it like that - thanks for the insight :)
     
  10. ClissAT

    ClissAT Valued Member Premium Member GOLD

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    Peachester! You had Lennox Walker at Crohamhurst Observatory living nearby then.
    He was one of the original long range weather forecasters who studied under Indigo Jones.

    http://www.worldweather.com.au/research/
     
  11. Mataeka

    Mataeka Active Member Premium Member GOLD

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    Indigo Jones is a name I'm familiar with although sad to say Lennox Walker doesn't ring a bell - as I said before young and naive and didn't understand why I should care about the weather :)
     
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